2017上半年PETS5考试(wsk)模拟完整试题及答案（四）

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Could the bad old days of economic decline be about to return?Since OPEC agreed to supply—cuts in March， the price of crude oil has jumped to almost$26 a barrel.up from less than$10 last December.This near—tripling of oil prices calls up scary memories of the 1973 0il shock，when prices quadrupled，and 1979—80，when they also almost tripled.Both previous shocks resulted in double—digit inflation and global economic decline.So where are the headlines warning of gloom and doom this time?

The Oil price was given another push up this week when Iraq suspended oil exports.Strengthening economic growth，at the same time as winter grips the northern hemisphere，could push the price higher still in the short term. Yet there ale good reasons to expect the economic consequences now to be less severe than in the l970s.In most countries the cost of crude oil now accounts for a smaller share of the price of petrol than it did in the l970s.In Europe，taxes account for up to four—fifths of the retail price，so even quite big changes in the price of crude have a more muted effect on pump prices than in the past.

Rich economies are also less dependent on oil than they were.and so less sensitive to swings in the oil price. Energy conservation，a shift to other fuels and a decline in the importance of heavy，energy—intensive industries has reduced oil consumption.Software.consultancy and mobile telephones use far less oil than steel or car production. For each dollar of GDP(in constant prices)rich economies now use nearly 50%less oil than in 1973.The OECD estimates in its latest Economic Outlook that，its oil prices averaged$2 a barrel for a full year，compared with $13 in 1998,this would increase the oil import bill in rich economies by only 0.25—0.5%of GDP.That is less than one-quarter of the income loss in 1974 0r 1980.On the other hand，oil-importing emerging economies--to which heavy industry has shifted-have become more energy-intensive，and so could be more seriously squeezed.

One more reason not to lose sleep over the rise in oil prices is that，unlike the rises in the 1970s，it has not oc— carred against the background of general commodity—price inflation and global excess demand.A sizable portion of the world is only just emerging from economic decline.The Economist’s commodity price index is broadly unchang— ing from a year a90.In 1973 commodity prices jumped by 70%and in 1979 by almost 30%.

61.The main reason for the latest rise of oil price is_____.

[A]global inflation

[B]reduction in supply

[C]fast growth in economy

[D]Iraq’s suspension of exports

62.It call be inferred from the text that the retail price of petrol will go up dramatically if_____.

[A]price of crude rises

[B]commodity prices rise

[C]consumption rises

[DJ oil taxes rise

63.The estimates in Economic Outllok show that in rich countries_____.

[A] heavy industry becomes more energy-intensive

[B]income loss mainly results from fluctuating crude oil prices

[C]manufacturing industry has been seriously squeezed

[D]oil price changes have no significant impact on GDP

64.We can draw a conclusion from the text that______.

[A]oil—price shocks are less shocking now

[B]inflation seems irrelevant to oil—price shocks

[C]energy conservation can keep down the oil prices

[D]the price rise of crude leads to the shrinking of heavy industry

65.From the text we can see that the writer seems_____.

[A]optimistic

[B]sensitive

[C]gloomy

[D]scared

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短文赏析

石油输出国组织在3月份决定减少原油供应，原油价格立即猛涨了3倍。本周伊拉克暂停石油出口，这使得油价又一次上扬。强劲的经济增长势头，随着北半球冬季的到来，有可能在短期内使石油价格涨得更高。但是人们并不恐慌，这是因为现在多数国家的原油价格占汽油价格的份额要小很多，发达国家对石油的依赖性也不如从前，因此对油价的波动也就不会那么敏感了。另外一个原因是，与20世纪70年代不同，这次油价上升并不是发生在普遍的物价暴涨及全球需求过旺背景之下。

答案及解析

61.B 【解析】文章的第二句中“Since OPEC agreed to supply-cuts in March，the price of crude oil has jumped to almost$26 a barrel，…”，说明油价上涨是由于石油输出国组织最近的减少供应导致的。故应选B。

62.D【解析】文章第三段第二、三句“In most countries the cost of crude oil now accounts for a smaller share of the price of petrol than it did in the l970s.In Europe….”指出原油价格只是汽油价格中的一小部分，以欧洲的例子说明税收高达汽油零售价的五分之四，所以汽油税上升会造成油价的大幅度上涨。故应选D。

63.D【解析】文章第四段第五句“The OECD estimates in its latest Economic Outlook that.its oil prices averaged $22 a barrel for a full year，...this would increase the oil import bill in rich economies by only 0.25—0.5%of GDP.”说明现在这种情况下，油价的上涨所带来的影响只是在0.25—0.5%之间。这表明在富裕国家石油价格的变化不会对GDP(国内生产总值)产生重大影响。故应选D。

64.A【解析】文章第三段第一句话“Yet there are good reasons to expect the economic consequences now to be less severe than in the1970s.”表明这次的油价上涨不会像以前那样带来严重的后果。从文章最后一段“0ne more reason not to lose sleep over the rise in oil prices is that，…”来看，我们不会为石油价格的上涨而失眠，也说明了这次的上涨影响不会很大。故应选A。

65.A【解析】文章第三段第一句“Yet there are good reasons to expect the economic consequences now to be less severe than in the l970s.”和第四段第一句都指出“Rich economies are also less dependent on oil than they were，and SO less sensitive to swings in the oil price.”也就是说各国有很好的理由盼望现在的经济前景会比二十世纪七十年代的情况乐观。发达国家对石油的依赖性较以前有所下降，因而对石油价格变动的敏感度也降低，这些都表明作者是持有乐观态度的。故应选A。